Eight teams, four tickets to the semifinals, one weekend that decides the shape of the 2026 World Cup. We ran the projected quarterfinals through 40,000 simulations to call who survives — and which side of the bracket sends the cleaner team to the final four.
The quarterfinals are where tournaments stop being about depth and start being about nerve. Every team left is good. The margins are tiny — a set piece, a save, a moment of variance in 90 minutes. The model can’t tell you who wins on the night, but it can tell you how close each tie really is, and that’s where the value lives.
8
QF teams
two per quarter
4
SF spots
on the line
~55%
Top fav per tie
no blowouts left
1
Likely upset
across the round
The projected quarterfinals
If seeding broadly holds, the model lines up four heavyweight ties. None is a mismatch — the worst-case favourite is barely above a coin flip.
The tie of the round and a possible final played a stage too early. France’s depth gives them the edge, but Brazil’s ceiling makes this the closest heavyweight clash in the bracket.
Spain control the middle third better than anyone; Argentina have the holders’ knack for winning ugly. The model leans Spain, but this is a genuine three-way split with the draw.
England favoured, but Morocco are the dark horse most likely to crash the final four — their defence travels and they’ve done this before. The round’s likeliest upset spot.
The model’s final four
Aggregate the runs and four teams reach the semifinals more often than not. The top half of the bracket eats one of the title favourites alive; the bottom half opens a lane.
Where the bracket breaks
Reading the semifinal lanes
Two of the four favourites can’t both make the final from the top half — so one of France, Spain or their conqueror goes home a round early. That’s the bracket’s cruelty and its opportunity: a single result in the quarters reshuffles the entire final four.
Who reaches the final (per 40k sims)
Four ties, four survivors — but only one of them is yours to call. Fill out your bracket, lock in your final four, and see whether your quarterfinal reads beat the simulation’s.